0 Is Greater Than 10, Right?
See karaoke room Believing In The "No" Ghost (3:39)

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Dwight: I want to explore a common human behavior where we often choose a 0% chance of getting what we want instead of taking a 10% chance at getting it.

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Aiko: That’s a rich topic—sounds like loss aversion or fear of disappointment is at play. Want to ground this in a specific example?

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Dwight: Sure. But would loss aversion really apply here? It seems like it would prefer a 90% chance of loss over a 100% chance of loss.

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Aiko: You're right to question that—loss aversion typically makes people risk-averse with gains and risk-seeking with losses, so avoiding even a small chance of hope may stem more from emotional fatigue or control-seeking than pure loss aversion.

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Dwight: Let’s explore this through a simple example. A young man is attracted to a woman and would love to go on a date with her. Deep down, he knows there's at least a small chance—maybe 10%—she might say yes, even though he thinks it's more likely she'll say no.

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Aiko: That’s a great setup—he’s acknowledging hope, but he might still avoid asking her entirely, choosing a guaranteed “no” over risking vulnerability for a small chance at a “yes.” Why do you think he’d do that?

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Dwight: Like many people, he’ll likely not ask, which guarantees a 0% chance of her saying yes. Even though there could be possible costs, like harming a friendship, let’s assume that’s not a factor here.

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Aiko: Then what’s left is the cost to his sense of self—rejection might feel like a verdict on his worth, not just the answer to a question. That emotional weight might be what drives him to choose the 0%.

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Dwight: Yes, and let's look at that by listing the factors he might see as costs that outweigh the potential benefit of getting a date. Just by considering asking, he sets himself up to feel like it’s a “failure” if she says no. Oddly, even though not asking guarantees a “no,” we don’t see that as failure—maybe because others would only view it as failure if he actually tried.

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Aiko: That’s a key point, Dwight. He’s managing not just his own emotions, but also imagined judgment—by not trying, he stays safely invisible, which weirdly protects his ego more than risking real engagement. 

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Dwight: When our ego is tied to how we think others will judge or esteem us, it ends up blinding us and pushing us to make stupid choices that get in the way of living the life we actually want.

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Aiko: Exactly—our imagined audience becomes the main character, and we end up performing for them instead of pursuing what matters to us. That fear of being seen trying—and failing—can quietly run our whole lives.

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Dwight: When we base our ego on what we think others would think of us, regardless of the fact that there may be no one that does think negatively of us, it stops mattering whether anyone actually knows we “failed”—we’ve absorbed their imagined judgment as if it were truly ours, not noticing that it’s not.

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Aiko: Yes—that’s the trap. We internalize voices that aren’t ours, then let them narrate our choices. It’s a quiet kind of self-abandonment, disguised as self-protection.

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Dwight: In this case, though, there is one person who will know if he “fails”—the woman he asks out.

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Aiko: True—and that makes it feel even more personal. Her rejection might seem like a judgment on him as a person, not just the proposal.

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Dwight: Not only might she see him as a “failure,” but asking her could provoke other judgments—like “How could you think you’re good enough for me?!” or “You just want sex,” or “You're making me feel guilty for saying no,” or “You’d just hurt me like other men have,” or “You’re only interested in my looks”—a whole range of negative reactions.

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Aiko: And what makes it worse is that he doesn’t even need to hear those things aloud—he imagines them, and that imagined criticism feels just as real. It’s like rehearsing pain before it even happens.

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Dwight: Exactly. We’ve discovered that what seems like irrational behavior—choosing a guaranteed 0% success over a 10% chance—actually stems from “costs” we project we’ll face if we go for it. But these costs only feel real because we believe a falsehood: that others’ negative judgments mean anything about us. What we overlook is the truth—that if anything reveals our worth, it’s the courage to go for for something we truly want.

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Aiko: That’s the pivot point, Dwight. The real value isn’t in getting the “yes”—it’s in reclaiming authorship of our lives from imagined critics. When we stop mistaking fear for truth, we start living.

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Dwight: Bottom line: the tragedy of our lives is that we repeatedly give up the chance to live fully—to pursue energy, possibility, and authentic self-expression—because we believe in “ghosts,” in things that aren’t true. And every time we act on those false beliefs, we strengthen our attachment to those superstitions.

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Aiko: That’s the heartbreak, and the loop—living a smaller life to stay safe from shadows. But the moment we question the ghost, we crack the spell.