Tails, you lose. Heads, I win...

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That's like the choice between being an optimist or a pessimist, both ways you lose.

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Special note: I use the word "coward" in the title for dramatic effect. In most cases, the word "coward" is a toxic, ill-define word.

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Both optimists and pessimists create a fantasy world in order to feel safer

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Optimists do it by minimizing the chances of failure. Pessimists do it by minimizing the chances of success.

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The foolhardy world of the optimist

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"I've got 25 people confirmed for the event. The results are in the bag."

"All the steps of the plan are in place. Our new business is a guaranteed success."

"I've got a solid marriage. Our future together is assured for the rest of our lives."

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There are few things in life that we can fully count on in our future planning and projections. After that, the chances of failure start small and increase in the short list provided below.

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• The sun will rise in the morning.

• Gravity will still operate on the surface of the earth tomorrow.

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• The electric power in my home will work without interruption today.

• My company will continue to pay me monthly according to their routine and promise.

• My car will start when I try to use it tomorrow.

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• My employee John will continue to show up on time for work each day unless he lets me know otherwise.

• My friends will keep their appointments with me unless they let me know in advance that they won't.

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• I will remember to talk to ask my colleague about this problem the next time I see them.

• I can rely on my friend to tell me if I've said anything to upset them.

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• Twelve people have confirmed for the party. I am sure all of them will show up.

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An optimist gets to create a higher sense of confidence, a more powerful feeling of predicting how the future will turn out by avoid acknowledging the chances of failure and risk. They cash in on these short-term benefits by ignoring or denying reality of risk and possible failure.

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The foolhardy world of the pessimist 

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"It doesn't make sense to apply for the type of job I want. Already I've gotten three rejections."

"I know that any girl that I would want would not want me."

"I'm just waiting for the other shoe to drop. There is got to be a price for this."

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There are many things in life that we can fully count on in our future planning and projections to be out of our control. After that, the chances of success start small and increase if we're willing to take action as indicated in the short list below.

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• The weather tomorrow will not be affected by anything I might do to affect it (short of cloud seeding).

• The rate of exchange between the USD and the CNY will not be affected by anything I might do to try to affect it.

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• Who the next president of the USA will be will not be affected by whom I vote for (including not voting).

• The outcome of how I throw the dice in a game of craps will not be affected by how I throw them.

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• In any given commercial flight the result of whether I die or am injured will not be affected by wearing a seatbelt.

• Buying meteorite/asteroid damage insurance will not affect ever being in a position to file a claim to collect on that insurance.

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• Any given request made to a stranger on the street to give me $105 USD will not be successful.

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• Taking a stand to stop drinking, given that I've not been successful at staying sober for longer than three months over the past 24 years, will not be successful for longer than one year.

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• Continuing to apply for a job as an executive assistant at least three more times, given that I've already gotten seven rejections, will not be successful.

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• Whoever the next president of my Toastmasters club will be will not be affected by whom I vote for or not.

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• Asking up to four friends to do me a favor by lending me their car for the day will not be successful in them being happy that I asked them regardless of whether they lend me their car.

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• Asking that man or woman for a date will not be successful in them saying yes.

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• Sharing my feelings more openly with my friend will not be successful with them being glad I did.

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A pessimist gets to create a higher sense of confidence, a more powerful feeling of predicting how the future with turn out, and gets to avoid facing the fear of action. They cash in on these short-term benefits of feeling safer by avoiding taking action and thereby avoiding the risk that those actions could fail, but at the expense of having any chance that those actions could lead to success. They blind themselves to the chances of success.

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Both are cut from the same cloth

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The motives of the optimist who denies or minimizes the risk of failure and the pessimist who denies or minimizes the possibilities of success are the same: to avoid accepting and embracing the risk that things will turn out differently than what they would prefer.

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See Undoing expectations.

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