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My Prediction: Russia or China-1991 (46-47)

Communism to what?

I heard an American political commentator noting the different trajectories that Russia and China, two formerly communist countries, were taking. Russia was primarily focused on creating more democracy but not necessarily freer markets, whereas China was intent, not on creating more democracy, but on creating a freer market economy.


Making a prediction to myself

I predicted (to myself) that, if these trends continued, China would far outpace Russia. In 1991 the per capita GDP of Russia was $3,485 USD. For China, it was $333 USD.


In 28 years, what happened?

In 2019, Russia per capita USD was $2,676 (less than it was in 1991).  In contrast, China’s per capita GDP was $10,153; it increased over 30 times. If the wealth and well-being of its citizens is a measure of how good a government is, then, although democracy is certainly important, without a relatively free market, a democracy will do worse than a non-democracy with a free market.

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