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Statistical law of inverse risk

(using the binonmail distribution)

rrp = repeating risk percentage (for example 80% risk of failure to get client each time session given)

dac = desired accomplishment count (for example to get at least 10 clients)

dsp = desired safety percentage (for example risk of failure to get at least dac to be 5% or less)

rr# = number of minimum times the repeating risk must be taken to get the dsp for the accomplishment quantity of dac for the given rrp.

What is the statistical formula that will give the answer rr# when rrp, dsp, and dac are known?

Creating more failure so you can succeed

Follow this law and your whole life will prosper. If you don't know about this law, at least intuitively, you'll lose more and more.

It's math or simple statistics.

In words, by the willingness and ability to fail often, again and again, but not always, on a series of junior "projects," then you'll be successful on the larger "project" that is made up of these junior projects.

A real-life example

For over 34 years (since 1987) now I've been able to guarantee that I would have a successful coaching practice with enough paying clients. The way I've been able to guarantee that is by failing often on a specific part of my business. 

The way I've gotten new clients over the past 34 years is by providing one-hour gift-coaching sessions, with no cost or obligation. And those that do accept this free session understand that I will have a chance to tell them about my regular, paid coaching program after the gift is complete.

In general, I've found that about 80% of those who enjoy a gift session from me do not signup for my regular paid program. I fail 80% of the time, only being successful 20% of the time. There was one time I gave 23 gift sessions consecutively and did not get a new client. Another time, three consecutive sessions resulted in a new client. But, overall I fail 80% of the time.

Simple statistics (at least for a statistician) will show you that by providing the gift session X number of times over a given time period will yield a Y% chance (approaching 100%) that I will get at least Q new clients during that period. The only thing needed to guarantee a percentage almost identical to 100% is to increase X. More failures in gift sessions mean a minuscule chance of NOT having enough clients. 

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