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Statistical law of inverse risk

(using the binonmail distribution)

rrp = repeating risk percentage (for example 80% risk of failure to get client each time session given)

dac = desired accomplishment count (for example to get at least 10 clients)

dsp = desired safety percentage (for example risk of failure to get at least dac to be 5% or less)

rr# = number of minimum times the repeating risk must be taken to get the dsp for the accomplishment quantity of dac for the given rrp.

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What is the statistical formula that will give the answer rr# when rrp, dsp, and dac are known?

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Creating more failure so you can succeed

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Follow this law and your whole life will prosper. If you don't know about this law, at least intuitively, you'll lose more and more.

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It's math or simple statistics.

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In words, by the willingness and ability to fail often, again and again, but not always, on a series of junior "projects," then you'll be successful on the larger "project" that is made up of these junior projects.

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A real-life example

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For over 34 years (since 1987) now I've been able to guarantee that I would have a successful coaching practice with enough paying clients. The way I've been able to guarantee that is by failing often on a specific part of my business. 

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The way I've gotten new clients over the past 34 years is by providing one-hour gift-coaching sessions, with no cost or obligation. And those that do accept this free session understand that I will have a chance to tell them about my regular, paid coaching program after the gift is complete.

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In general, I've found that about 80% of those who enjoy a gift session from me do not signup for my regular paid program. I fail 80% of the time, only being successful 20% of the time. There was one time I gave 23 gift sessions consecutively and did not get a new client. Another time, three consecutive sessions resulted in a new client. But, overall I fail 80% of the time.

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Simple statistics (at least for a statistician) will show you that by providing the gift session X number of times over a given time period will yield a Y% chance (approaching 100%) that I will get at least Q new clients during that period. The only thing needed to guarantee a percentage almost identical to 100% is to increase X. More failures in gift sessions mean a minuscule chance of NOT having enough clients. 

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